December 9, 2023
Soybeans fell more than 4%, followed by other commodities with weather in the US...

Soybeans fell more than 4%, followed by other commodities with weather in the US…

Along with the general decline in commodities, soybeans intensified and deepened their decline on the Chicago Stock Exchange this Monday, as at 11:40 a.m. (Brasilia time), losses ranged from 57 to 63 points, exceeding 4%. Among derivatives, bran fell 4%, while oil yielded more than 3%. Maize and wheat yielded more than 2% with severe losses.

Part of the pressure comes from oil, which fell more than 5% this morning, leading WTI to miss the US$ 89.00 a barrel level, helping to trigger sharp and widespread losses not just for energy commodities. , but agriculture and metallurgy.

A day of risk aversion and investors leaving risky assets.

“The week started sad. China cut interest rates, which was unexpected and raised fears of a bigger than expected recession. The market is already operating with 3% growth, the lowest since the early 1990s”, explains market analyst Eduardo Vanin from AgrInvest Commodities.

In addition, tensions between Taiwan and the United States are rising again with the arrival of a new US delegation to the Asian island. At the same time, China and the US are conducting military exercises in the Taiwan Strait, which is helping to further unsettle the market.

Grains traded on the CBOT weigh the latest figures from the USDA (United States Department of Agriculture) and the weather in the Corn Belt.

“The weather will be very favorable for the next few days, with mild temperatures and more rain in the most affected areas. This year, soybeans have grown from 900,000 acres of corn in the states of Iowa, Illinois and Indiana, where conditions are better. Compared to last year, in addition, USDA Ohio “Revised upstate, where soybeans also gained acreage,” Vanin adds.

For the next 6 to 10 days – August 20 to 24, the latest maps from NOAA, the official weather service of the United States, indicate very favorable conditions, especially for soybeans, with precipitation and temperature anomalies. For the rest of the month and the beginning of the next month.

Whatsapp Image 2022-08-15 12.04.07
Map with temperature anomalies for August 20-24 in the US – Map: NOAA
Whatsapp Image 2022-08-15 12.04.24
US Precipitation Anomaly Map for August 20-24 – Map: NOAA

“The week begins with the GFS and European models aligning their weather forecasts for the next 10 days. Both indicate mild rain and moderate temperatures across the Midwest and the entire southern US. The anomalies we can identify in the models today, they are in the European model’s indications, which is northern Nebraska, southern Kansas. and brings light rains that bring specific differences in the amounts expected in western Illinois, Indiana and Ohio,” says Ginaldo Souza, director general of Grupo Laboro.