June 14, 2024

The US future is rising after the recession, on Chinese data and Fed radar

6 min read
The US future is rising after the recession, on Chinese data and Fed radar
Asia: Asian stock markets, which opened on Monday, closed indiscriminately following strong sell-off on Wall Street, with investors weighing Chinese production data for April released over the weekend.

According to data released over the weekend, Chinese manufacturing activity contracted at a sharp pace in April.

The official production PMI for April fell to 47.4, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics on Saturday, the second month since the March 49.5 reading. A 50-point mark on PMI measurements separates growth from contraction. PMI measurements are sequential and indicate monthly expansion or contraction.

Caixin / Markit’s PMI pointed to a contraction in Chinese manufacturing activity, with its manufacturing PMI reaching 46, up from 48.1 the previous month.

The data comes as China’s mainland has been struggling for weeks with its worst Govt eruption since 2020. Residents of Shanghai, China’s most populous city, spent several weeks locked up in April. The capital, Beijing, began mass testing millions of residents this week.

Markets in Hong Kong, China, Singapore and Taiwan were closed on Monday for public holidays.

In Japan, shares of robot maker Funuk fell 2.26%, or 0.11%, to 26,818.53 points. This week’s national holidays, known as Golden Week, allow people to take a vacation in defiance of the “work-addicted” culture of Japanese companies. But crowds flocking to places like resorts raise concerns that corona virus cases could escalate again, prompting restaurants to reopen restrictions on opening hours and other business activities.

The one from South Korea ended the session down 0.28% at 2,687.45 points.

Shares of Australia also ended with a decline, with the stock falling 1.18% to 7,347.00 points, while all sectors declined. Local investors are expecting possible interest rate hikes this week from the RBA and its peers abroad. BHP fell 0.06%, while Rio Tinto (LON πŸ™‚ advanced 0.67%.

Excluding Japan, the MSCI index for the Asia-Pacific region fell 0.56%.

Europe: Shares in Europe start lower during the week, but Monday’s session saw lower levels due to the UK holiday, with investors monitoring monetary policy, inflation data and sharp movements on Wall Street.

On Friday, the European Union announced that the economies of the 19 countries that use it grew by just 0.2% in the first quarter of the year. The news follows reports that the US economy has grown 0.4% over the same period. Rising energy prices and supply chain delays caused by Russia’s onslaught are hampering business around the world.

Pan-European is down 1.48%, while German 30 is down 0.61%. France fell 1.35% and Italy 0.87%.

On the Iberian Peninsula, Spanish and Portuguese fell 0.60%.

In Russia, exchanges are not open today.

According to published economic data, German retail sales fell sharply in March. According to the Federal Bureau of Statistics, sales fell 0.1% month-on-month.

The European Commission says employment expectations fell further in April as employment programs in four business sectors worsened over the next three months.

S&P Global’s Eurozone PMI fell to 55.5 in April from 56.5 in March, the lowest level in 15 months. Despite a score above 50.0, this indicates an improvement in the situation, with a significant loss in growth momentum as the core PMI falls for the third consecutive month. S&P Global reported that the slow expansion was accompanied by a moderate increase in new orders and supply side pressures, as disruptions by the Govt-19 restrictions in China and the ongoing war in Ukraine caused disruptions. “Amidst supply chain challenges, input price inflation rose to a five-month low as fuel and energy costs rose. Manufacturers responded with a very rapid increase in recorded selling prices.”

Rising inflation in April and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine have eroded confidence among eurozone consumers and businesses. The European Commission said on Monday that its economic sentiment index had fallen from 106.7 in March to 105.0 in April. Economists expect the index to reach 108.0. The decline was due to the fact that confidence indicators in the service sector remained unchanged as confidence among industry, retail, construction and consumer confidence deteriorated.

Sentiment has also fallen sharply in Spain and France, albeit at a lower level. Confidence in Germany was broadly stable, and in Italy it improved.

Meanwhile, global investors continue to monitor the war in Ukraine and its geopolitical implications. EU leaders are expected to impose sanctions on Russia this week.

Over the weekend, the United Nations and the International Committee of the Red Cross began evacuating civilians from the besieged port city of Mariupol. The move is expected to continue this Monday.

United States: The U.S. stock index futures traded higher on Monday morning trading as investors sought to shake up broader April sales ahead of the Federal Reserve’s expected aggression to curb inflation.

Key indices fell on Friday, accelerating April losses. The Dow is down 2.77% at 32,977.21 points and the Dow is down 3.63% at 4,131.93 points, its worst day since June 2020. The Dow is down 4.17% at 12,334.64 points, 4% lower than the Amazon (NASDAQ :). , Its worst loss since 2006, after falling short of profit expectations and weak sales guidance.

The Dow fell about 2.5% last week, the fifth consecutive negative week for the 30-share benchmark. The S&P 500 recorded its fourth straight negative for the first time since September 2020 and the Nasdaq recorded its fourth week of losses, with both indices recording their lowest year-end lows.

The Dow and S&P 500 are coming off their worst month since the outbreak of March 2020. At the end of April, the Dow was down 4.9% and the S&P was down 8.8%. Sales on the Nasdaq mix were even worse, falling 13.26% in April, its worst month since October 2008. Large technology companies such as Amazon, Netflix (NASDAQ πŸ™‚ and Meta Platforms (NASDAQ πŸ™‚ suffered a sharp decline following the decline in performance.

The reasons for the stock fall are numerous. Among them is the fear that the Federal Reserve’s efforts to reduce inflation could trigger a recession. The US Federal Reserve’s Federal Reserve Market Committee meets this week and is expected to raise rates by 50 basis points on Wednesday, the largest increase since 2000. Reduction of its balance sheet.

Russia’s war with Ukraine has exacerbated inflation, prompting Western nations to block Russian goods from the world market, putting more pressure on consumer and corporate profit margins. Locks in China under its “Govit Zero” policy prevent global access to goods leaving China.

Apple (NASDAQ) said last week that supply restrictions would affect its third-quarter balance of $ 4 billion to $ 8 billion. The technology company also said that the failures related to Kovit are having an impact on customer demand in China.

Netflix lost 49% last month, while Amazon and Meta lost 24% and 10.8%, respectively. Technology stocks are particularly hard hit as their frequent high ratings and promises of future growth begin to appear less attractive in the context of rising interest rates.

Revenue is halfway through the season, but many companies are expected to announce results next week, including several consumer-centric restaurants and travel companies. Expedia, MGM Resorts, Pfizer (NYSE :), Airbnb (NASDAQ :), Starbucks, Lyft (NASDAQ :), Marriott, Yum Brands, Uber (NYSE πŸ™‚ eBay (NASDAQ πŸ™‚ and TripAdvisor are some examples.

Of the 275 S&P 500 companies that have recorded earnings so far, 80% have surpassed earnings estimates and 73% surpassed revenue expectations, according to Refinitiv data.

On Monday’s economic schedule, the official production PMI will be released at 10:45 am, and the ISM version of the PMI will be released at 11:00 am, with construction costs.

The most important economic indicator will come on Friday when the April jobs report is released.

Cryptocurrency: Cryptocurrency and other cryptocurrencies traded higher on Monday, recovering from a fall last week, with most digital assets falling along with other risk-sensitive assets such as technology stocks.

Bitcoin is up 2% at $ 38,794. The world’s largest cryptocurrency fell about 0.4% last week to 15.8% in 2022 and is far from the all-time high of $ 68,990 reached at the beginning of last November.

Growing expectations of a rise in interest rates from the central bank have spurred sell-offs on risk assets, especially technology stocks. Analysts say Bitcoin’s fundamentals have begun to weaken as “crypto retail and corporate interest” begins to wane, and the $ 40,000 level appears to be the strongest opposition to Bitcoin.

This Saturday, Berkshire Hathaway’s Warren Buffett (NYSE πŸ™‚ made it clear at his annual shareholders’ meeting that he was not interested in bitcoin and was skeptical about the world’s largest cryptocurrency. “I don’t know if it’s going up or down in the next year, five or ten years, but I’m just sure it’s not producing anything.”

Bitcoin: + 2.09% $ 39,794.00
: + 1.43%, at $ 2,807.5
: + 0.81%
: -1.22%
: -0.06%
: -0.49%
: + 2.98%
: + 4.08%
: + 2.16%

Futures Index – 7:50 am:
Dow: + 0.45%
SP500: + 0.43%
NASDAQ100: + 0.51%

MinFe Dailan: + 4.19%
: -2.32%
WTI: -2.76%
: -0.94%
: -1.59%

Note: This material is a voluntary, independent work, the result of a collection of data published on several websites, summarized here in an artificial way to facilitate and speed up the reader’s understanding. The text of the Asian session is in the past due to the time this report was written, while both European and American are in the present. Focus on when data is available. The text is not an indication of buying, holding or selling property.

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