The USDA (United States Department of Agriculture) on Wednesday (15) announced the cancellation of two soybean purchases. One of them is from China, 132,000 tons, and 196,000 tons from unpublished places, and both represent volumes for the 2021/22 harvest. Cancellation of volumes equal to or greater than 100,000 tons must always be notified to the department by the same buyer on the same day as the sale.
The logistics issues experienced by the United States in the aftermath of Hurricane Ida and the arrival of tropical storm Nicholas have severely compromised the flow of American grain and may be one reason for its cancellation.
“Most likely, this sale will be shipped from the Gulf between October and November, in which case US logistics will be compromised. September shipments must be from October to October and November, so the Agrinwest Commodities Group explains. “However, the proposal to extend the contracts was not accepted by the counter-buyer.
Similarly, China has already purchased ten ships of soybeans from Brazil for October exports, according to traders, to meet its needs and ensure the safety of its processing companies. “The United States is losing a key part of its export program,” explains Eduardo Vanine, a market analyst at AgrinWest.
In addition to Brazil, the Chinese buy soybeans in Argentina and Uruguay, according to broker data. However, Vanine further explains that “China’s reserve prices for October exports to Brazil are too high, hurting local crushing margins.” Similarly, for the United States, export signals may be lower than the USDA estimate of 56.88 million tons for the 2021/22 season.
“In the case of China, the logistical blackout and the diversion of its purchases to South America indicate a reduction in its processing,” the researcher concludes. Despite the frequent presence of Asian giants, its oilseed purchases have shown a low level of consideration for its needs, mainly related to the current era, which has traditionally provided more heat for animal feed consumption.
“Sales of soybean food fell sharply again in September from 5.3 million tonnes. Due to the cart site, sales will cross 2.5 million tonnes this month. This is not a good sign, demand is not good,” Vanin said. Simply put, the world’s largest feed consumer pays a $ 20 bill per pork, and China’s pork farm continues to have negative margins.
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