February 29, 2024
The US future is rising after the recession, on Chinese data and Fed radar

Exchange during holiday week in US and BR

Let’s start another week to analyze the behavior of the forex market.

Today the OPEC+ meeting will take place and we will see if a cut in world supply will be announced in an attempt to boost the price of a barrel.

This week, in Brazil, the most important index to be released is the IPCA, which officially measures our inflation only on Friday. And Wednesday is Independence Day.

In the US, today is Labor Day and a holiday. The exchange will not be open, thus reducing the liquidity in the markets.

During the week, we will follow speeches from several chairmen of the US Federal Reserve, with Jerome Powell speaking on Thursday. These texts may provide some clues about the next interest rate hike. The day before Powell’s speech, Paige’s book comes out, with Fed members’ expectations for the U.S. economy. Until Friday, the market was mostly betting at 0.75, but after the payout many migrated to betting 0.5.

In Europe, the long-awaited ECB monetary policy meeting will take place on Thursday. Next, there will be an interview with Christine Lagarde to comment on the interest rate decision. The market expects an increase of 0.75. Last week, inflation there was 9.1%. We will see…

We continue to monitor the war between Ukraine and Russia and its effects on our economy. And, therefore, in exchange. Gas supply was disrupted last Friday afternoon.

In China, the focus is on the lockdown and housing crisis. As I said, the return of consumption in China is mirrored a lot in Brazil.

Here we have election campaigns in full swing, which may bring additional volatility to the exchange rate. It’s not so quiet anymore. Last week it was quoted at R$5.1848. Despite a correction on the last day of the week, the US currency rose 2.1% on the week. The revision was mainly due to the market’s interpretation of employment data on the US economy, which suggested the central bank should not raise interest rates by 0.75 percent at its next meeting.

Today’s calendar includes the already mentioned US holiday, as well as the traditional focus bulletin for Mondays, services PMI and August mix.

Have a great week everyone and focus on flow and stuff.