oh Territorial conflict between Russia and UkraineThe escalation began after the annexation of Crimea by the Russians in 2014, and has taken on new dimensions in recent months with the increase of troops from both countries along the border between the countries. Tensions led NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization) and the United States to enter the debate.
However, a major armed conflict between the Russians and the Americans is unlikely, in the view of researcher and sociologist Gustavo Lacerda: “The United States does not want [se envolver em uma guerra]. For all the reasons in the world they wouldn’t.”
Unlike Syria’s civil war, in which the Americans support the Kurds while the Russians side with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, the Ukrainian conflict will have much larger dimensions for Russia. As a result, there will be a war between nations on a grand scale.
“These conflicts between Russia and the United States take place in different ways, but some take on a particularly large dimension, and Ukraine is this conflict,” the expert explains.
Lacerta points out that US President Joe Biden will try to avoid armed conflict at all costs, especially given the failure of the 20-year war in Afghanistan. you BRL 4.5 trillion was invested in the conflict “Waste money”.
America and Russia share the same strategy
If Biden didn’t want to bring the US into conflict with Russia, why did he decide to get involved in the Ukraine issue? Simple, for the same reason Vladimir Putin favors Latin American countries like Cuba, Nicaragua, and Venezuela that are politically embarrassing for the United States.
“Just as Eastern Europe is Russia’s property, the Americans are clear that even Panama is fully American territory,” Lacerda said, highlighting the effort to influence the two world powers in the neighboring countries.
Both Biden and Putin do not want the opposing nation to advance, and that is the thrust of the foreign policy of the two superpowers.
“The US wants to prevent Russia from doing anything. And it’s not just America. England and Italy think so too. Not because they are Western countries, but because of geopolitics, pure and simple, they don’t want to turn Russia back into the Soviet Union.
According to Lacerta, if the Russians decide to invade Ukraine, there is little the West can do because the annexation of the Crimean region happened without major repression from other world leaders. According to the expert, if it turns into a war, there is little benefit for the Americans to be involved in the conflict.
“If America goes into Ukraine now, it won’t be like Afghanistan where you have mountains where you can hide. Ukraine borders Russia, surrounded by the Balkans, Poland, and other anti-American regimes. Why are you going to spend so much money?”
We agree to disagree
Biden and Putin have met a few times in recent months. In one of the meetings held in Geneva, Switzerland, the The Russian president said the dialogue was “constructive”.. Lacerda was not so enthusiastic about the meetings between the two leaders.
“A constructive encounter means they don’t kill each other and declare war,” jokes the researcher. “It is the language of diplomacy. […] If the Russians claim they have a positive result, they agree to disagree.
In the researcher’s understanding, the exchanges of accusations and threats of sanctions between Biden and Putin demonstrate how the game of international diplomacy works.
“They know how to play this game. They know, they’ve been at it for centuries, so they know how to compete,” Lacerta concludes.
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